Covering the hottest stories from the past 24 hours across global energy news, markets, and policy.
🔴 Breaking & Market-Moving
1. 🚨 U.S. & Israel Launch Major Military Strikes on Iran — Strait of Hormuz at Risk
Source: Reuters / CNBC / Foreign Policy / Bloomberg | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: The United States and Israel launched “major combat operations” against Iran on Saturday, targeting ministries in Tehran, nuclear enrichment sites, and military infrastructure across the country. Iran retaliated immediately and broadly — launching missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain, with explosions also reported near Iran’s Kharg Island (through which ~90% of its crude exports flow) and blasts heard in Bahrain and the UAE. As of Saturday evening, the Strait of Hormuz remains open with no confirmed shipping disruptions, but tanker operators are diverting routes, and insurers are reassessing coverage. The Strait handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day — about 20% of global liquid oil consumption and one-fifth of global LNG trade. 🔗 Link: https://gcaptain.com/iran-war-strait-hormuz-oil-shipments-disruption/
2. Oil Prices Poised to Surge $5–$20/Barrel at Monday Open — Worst Energy Shock in Decades
Source: Yahoo Finance / CNBC / Euronews / Axios | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: With markets closed over the weekend, analysts are warning of a sharp, potentially violent open on Monday. Brent crude settled at $72.48/barrel on Friday (up ~2.5%), but forecasts for Monday’s open range from +$5 (base case, if the Strait stays open and Iran’s retaliation stays limited) to +$10–$20/barrel if Iran escalates against Gulf oil infrastructure or closes the Strait. Rystad Energy’s Jorge León said the “strategic initiative now lies with Iran” over the next 24–72 hours. Lombard Odier flagged a scenario where oil could spike to $100/barrel or beyond if the Strait is closed for a sustained period. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan is predicting U.S. pump prices rise to at least $3.10–$3.15/gallon in the near term. 🔗 Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-strikes-against-iran-could-see-oil-prices-jump-10-to-20-or-more-with-no-deescalation-143847017.html
3. The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint: 20% of Global Oil Supply Hangs in the Balance
Source: Reuters / The National / Euronews / Foreign Policy | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: Iran produces 3.3 million barrels per day (4th-largest OPEC producer), but its strategic weapon is the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that handles ~20 million bpd of crude and refined products, plus a fifth of global LNG trade. About 80% of Iran’s crude exports flow to China; the Strait is also the primary export corridor for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia has pre-positioned by ramping crude shipments to over 7 million bpd in February (highest since April 2023). Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, confirmed it intercepted missiles aimed at the country. Energy Aspects’ Richard Bronze: “We will likely see a jump on Monday, but after that, if there is no firm evidence that oil production is affected at scale, the market may move on.” 🔗 Link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/us-iran-israel-strikes-oil-markets-hormuz-energy-opec/
4. Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes Hit U.S. Bases Across the Gulf — Energy Infrastructure Targeted
Source: Reuters / gCaptain / The National | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: Iran launched retaliatory strikes far broader in scope than its “symbolic” response to last June’s attacks on its nuclear sites. Missile strikes were reported against U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain — all major energy exporters and transit hubs. Houthis in Yemen simultaneously signaled renewed Red Sea shipping attacks in solidarity. Crucially, Iranian state media suggested Iran had pre-loaded most crude stored at Kharg Island terminal onto tankers before the strikes — suggesting some pre-positioning for supply disruption. Oil majors have begun suspending tanker transits through the Strait pending further assessment. 🔗 Link: https://gcaptain.com/iran-war-strait-hormuz-oil-shipments-disruption/
🟠 Policy & Regulation
5. OPEC+ Emergency Meeting Called for Sunday — Could Authorize Larger Output Increase
Source: Reuters / The National / CNBC | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: OPEC+ was already scheduled to meet Sunday to vote on resuming production hikes of 137,000 bpd for April — but the Iran strikes have transformed it into an emergency session. Kpler’s Amena Bakr said the bloc “can possibly consider a larger increase if there is a risk of supply loss.” However, the fundamental tension is acute: OPEC+ can authorize more output, but if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf producers’ output cannot reach market regardless of quota decisions, since they have limited alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipeline bypass capacity, but not nearly enough to replace Strait volumes. 🔗 Link: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/02/28/us-iran-war-what-will-the-impact-be-on-oil/
6. Trump Administration May Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve — 415 Million Barrels Available
Source: CNBC / ClearView Energy Partners | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: ClearView Energy Partners’ Kevin Book told clients that the Trump administration could deploy the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if oil prices spike sharply at Monday’s open. The SPR currently holds ~415 million barrels — roughly 20 days of U.S. consumption — and was last tapped in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine energy shock. However, analysts caution that “in supply crises, duration matters. Scale does, too” — meaning the SPR can blunt short-term spikes but cannot substitute for a sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption. 🔗 Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/28/iran-us-attack-oil-market-economy.html
7. EU Plans Full Maritime Services Ban on Russian Crude Oil — Coordinating with G7
Source: OilPrice.com | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: The European Union is moving toward a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil exports — including tanker insurance, classification, and financing — and is coordinating the measure with G7 partners to maximize impact. Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the proposal “madness.” The move, if implemented, would significantly tighten the global tanker market by forcing Russian crude onto the so-called “shadow fleet” of uninsured vessels, compressing legal tanker availability precisely as Iran-driven demand for alternative routing spikes. 🔗 Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/
8. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Reopens California Offshore Drilling — Overriding State Opposition
Source: OilPrice.com | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: Federal regulators reopened the door to offshore oil and gas drilling off California — a move state politicians have spent years trying to block. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced it will prepare a new environmental review for potential offshore leasing in the Pacific, in a direct assertion of federal authority over energy production that is expected to face immediate legal challenges from California’s government. 🔗 Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/
🟡 Investment & Deals
9. Cheniere Energy Reports 64% Surge in 2025 Net Income — Record LNG Exports
Source: OilPrice.com | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG), the largest U.S. LNG exporter, reported a 64% jump in 2025 net income year-over-year, driven by record production and export volumes as demand from Europe and Asia surged. The results underscore the durability of U.S. LNG as a global energy asset — and the Iran conflict now places Cheniere’s volumes in even sharper strategic relief as Europe scrambles to secure non-Russian, non-Middle Eastern gas supply. 🔗 Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/
10. Eni Q4: Oil & Gas Production Up 7% — Six Major New Projects Online
Source: OilPrice.com | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: Italian major Eni reported a 7% increase in Q4 oil and gas production year-over-year, following the start-up of six major new projects across Africa, Asia, and the Americas in the quarter. The result highlights the continued upstream investment cycle among European majors despite lower crude prices — and positions Eni for stronger cash generation if the Iran crisis drives a sustained price spike. 🔗 Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/
🟢 Renewables & Clean Energy
11. EIA: Renewables to Add 62% More Capacity in 2026 Than 2025 — Accounting for All Net New U.S. Power
Source: Electrek / EIA Electric Power Monthly | Published: Feb 26, 2026 Summary: A SUN DAY Campaign analysis of the latest EIA data confirms that solar, wind, and battery storage are projected to add 62% more generating capacity in 2026 than they did in 2025 — and will account for essentially all net new U.S. utility-scale electricity capacity this year. By end of 2026, total renewable capacity (including estimated small-scale solar) is projected to surpass natural gas for the first time: 525 GW of renewables vs. 514 GW of gas. Solar alone will provide 51% of planned 2026 capacity additions; battery storage 28%; wind 14%. 🔗 Link: https://electrek.co/2026/02/26/eia-renewable-energy-capacity-2026/
12. ING: Solar and Wind Generation to Grow 20% in 2026 — Fastest-Growing Energy Source Globally
Source: Energy Central / ING | Published: Feb 13, 2026 Summary: ING’s ESG research team projects global solar and wind generation will grow 20% in 2026 and average 15% annual growth through 2030. Coco Zhang of ING noted that despite political headwinds in the U.S., “one thing is crystal clear: solar and wind are set for steady, sustained growth this decade,” with China’s dominance in manufacturing accelerating as the Trump administration’s pullback creates a vacuum. The Iran conflict may paradoxically accelerate clean energy investment as energy security concerns push governments toward domestic, non-imported power sources. 🔗 Link: https://www.energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/renewables-resilience-gas-market-muddle-highlight-early-2026-energy-pLPFXsXmqSbh5TN
🔵 Nuclear & Emerging Energy
13. First Commercial Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) in the U.S. On Track for June 2026
Source: EIA Today in Energy | Published: Feb 2026 Summary: The first large-scale commercial enhanced geothermal system power plant in the U.S. is under construction and on track to come online in June 2026, per the EIA’s latest generator survey. EGS — which creates geothermal energy by fracturing hot rock formations and circulating water through them — can operate virtually anywhere with sufficient subsurface heat, unlike conventional geothermal which requires natural hydrothermal features. The milestone could open vast new baseload clean power potential across the American West. 🔗 Link: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/
14. U.S. Natural Gas Production to Hit Record 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 — Pipeline Expansion the Key
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | Published: Feb 10, 2026 Summary: The EIA forecasts U.S. dry natural gas marketed production will average a record 120.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and climb further to 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027. Growth is concentrated in the Haynesville (up 1.2 Bcf/d in 2026), Appalachia, and Permian regions, with the second half of 2026 being the key ramp period as new Permian pipeline capacity comes online. The Iran conflict makes this production outlook even more strategically significant: U.S. LNG exports are now critical insurance for European and Asian energy security. 🔗 Link: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
⚫ Grid & Infrastructure
15. Data Center Power Demand Is Now Primary U.S. Grid Growth Driver — ERCOT and PJM Most Stressed
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook / Utility Dive | Published: Feb 2026 Summary: The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook explicitly calls out data center growth — concentrated in ERCOT (Texas) and PJM (mid-Atlantic) — as the primary driver of rising U.S. electricity demand in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity generation is forecast to grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, led by solar (up 17% in 2026). Utility Dive notes that Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project is now being sized partly around data center load forecasts, blurring the line between offshore wind planning and hyperscaler infrastructure deals. 🔗 Link: https://www.utilitydive.com/
16. Saudi Arabia Pre-Emptively Surges Crude Exports to 7+ Million bpd — Highest Since April 2023
Source: Reuters / gCaptain / Kpler | Published: Feb 28, 2026 Summary: In what now reads as clear pre-positioning for the Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia ramped crude shipments to over 7 million barrels per day in February — the highest since April 2023 — according to shipping analytics firm Kpler. The kingdom, along with the UAE, has some alternative export infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz (Saudi’s East-West Pipeline; UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline), but their combined bypass capacity is roughly 5–6 million bpd — far short of full Strait volumes if a blockade materializes. 🔗 Link: https://gcaptain.com/iran-war-strait-hormuz-oil-shipments-disruption/
📊 Quick Hits
Smaller stories worth noting:
- Trump reportedly declared Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei dead — unconfirmed reports circulating; Iranian state media has not confirmed; would represent an extraordinary escalation with massive oil market implications. 🔗 Link
- A prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure = guaranteed global recession — Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally; world’s spare oil capacity sits in Gulf states and cannot reach market if Strait is blocked. 🔗 Link
- Brent crude settled Friday at $72.48/barrel (+2.45%) — markets will open Sunday evening in Asia; analysts expect initial surge of at least 5–10%. 🔗 Link
- India seeks to slash thermal coal imports 30% in 2026 — accelerating pivot to domestic coal supply, reducing exposure to seaborne coal markets. 🔗 Link
- Croatia confirms it can supply Hungary and Slovakia — both nations have been without Russian oil for a month following Druzhba pipeline damage; Croatia’s Janaf pipeline offers an alternative. 🔗 Link
- DOJ sides with Argentina in $18B nationalization case — relates to the 2012 nationalization of YPF (Argentina’s state oil company); potential to reshape energy investment rules in Latin America. 🔗 Link
- 290 million barrels of Russian & Iranian crude in floating storage — a pre-existing bearish overhang that may now be rapidly absorbed as markets price in supply risk. 🔗 Link
Report generated: February 28, 2026. Sources covered: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, Foreign Policy, Axios, Yahoo Finance, Euronews, The National, NPR, gCaptain, OilPrice.com, EIA, Electrek, Utility Dive, Energy Central / ING.
⚠️ This report is compiled from web search results. Some links may require a subscription to read in full. Commodity prices are indicative and may have moved since publication. The Iran conflict situation is rapidly evolving — for live updates, check Reuters, Bloomberg, and CNBC directly. For live market data, consult your trading platform.